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In the webinar Navigating 2025: A Taxing Year for Investors, Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners shares his views on policy direction, the significance of tariff policies, deficit projections and potential market outcomes. The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” (OBBBA) passed by the House on July 3, has broad implications for corporate taxes, individual deductions, entitlement programs and the federal deficit.
Clifton offers insights on how these may affect the economy, investors and fiscal policy. Highlights from the webinar can be found below, while a full replay can be found here.
- Lowering oil prices a main goal. President Trump sees lower oil prices as a key to easing inflation, which may prompt rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), ultimately reducing the budget deficit by lowering interest costs. Historically, oil prices have fallen and stocks have rallied after the U.S. starts a geopolitical event.
- Massive tax changes. Overall, the OBBBA extends the 2017 tax cuts, adds new pro-growth tax cuts for businesses and individuals and raises the debt ceiling. It lifts the SALT (state and local tax) deduction cap to $40,000 and includes deep cuts to several entitlement programs to help offset costs.
- Surging tariff revenue as a powerful fiscal tool. President Trump’s tariff policies are reshaping trade and fiscal dynamics. Tariff revenues are now projected to generate $2.5 trillion over 10 years—enough to potentially offset the tax bill’s projected cost.
- Legal and market risks around tariffs. The tariffs’ legality is being challenged, with a major appeals court case set for July 31. The Trump team has a “Plan B” in place should the courts rule against the administration, potentially requiring the Treasury to refund collected tariffs.
- Interest rates, inflation and the Fed. The Fed is being pressured to cut rates, with the administration citing tariffs as a deflationary lever. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resisting, potentially setting the stage for a policy clash later this year.
- High policy uncertainty could mean market opportunity. Historically, periods of high policy uncertainty are often followed by strong market returns, particularly as clarity emerges on taxes and tariffs. S&P 500 data are cited.
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