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Amid a rapidly evolving landscape in health and wellness, GLP-1s are redefining the way millions approach weight loss, diet and even alcohol use. Initially used for diabetes treatment, these innovative therapies are now at the forefront of obesity care—capturing headlines and sparking debate across medical and consumer circles. The influence of GLP-1s and their widespread adoption is reshaping habits, industries and cultural attitudes at a fast pace—with significant implications for investors.
In this Q&A, consumer analyst James Cullen and portfolio manager Jason Kritzer unpack the science behind GLP-1s and examine their growing impact on consumer choices—from the grocery cart to the barstool.
What are GLP-1 drugs, and how do they help in obesity treatment?
Kritzer: GLP-1 drugs mimic the actions of the natural hormone glucagon-like peptide-1, supporting weight loss and blood sugar management through several mechanisms. They stimulate the pancreas to release insulin when blood sugar levels rise, helping move sugar from the bloodstream into cells for energy—a key approach in diabetes treatment.
GLP-1s also slow gastric emptying, keeping food in the stomach longer and increasing feelings of fullness. They also send signals to the brain that increase feelings of satiety, reducing appetite.
How significant is the market potential for GLP-1 drugs?
Kritzer: The CDC reports that 40% of U.S. adults—about 100 million people—are obese, with another one-third overweight based on BMI levels. That puts the total addressable market somewhere between these two groups. Prescriptions for GLP-1s have grown about 40% year over year. The key question is how many of those 100 million will be willing to take a weekly injection that could help them lose 15% to 20% of their weight?1 Consensus estimates for Zepbound and Wegovy (the two primary weight loss GLP-1s on the market) project $43 billion in combined revenue by 2031.
What impact will oral GLP-1 drugs have on the market?
Kritzer: Oral GLP-1 options, like those in development by Eli Lilly, are poised to diversify the market. Though slightly less effective than injectables (about 10% to 11% weight loss), their convenience is a game-changer for users who prefer pills over injections. As more oral treatments hit the shelves, we expect user adoption to increase, broadening the reach of GLP-1 therapies.
On average, how much do GLP-1s suppress appetite, and do they affect taste for food or drink?
Kritzer: The USDA says the average person in the U.S. consumes 3,900 calories per day. In theory, losing 15% of your body weight means cutting about 15% of your daily calories. Many users say the drugs quiet “food noise,” meaning they don’t think about food as much between meals. Anecdotally, cravings for sweets and cookies are curbed the most.
How do GLP-1s affect diet and exercise habits?
Cullen: Some studies suggest GLP-1 users are buying fewer high-calorie, processed snack foods and opting instead for fresh produce or protein-rich items. But simple calorie math can be misleading, as the reduction isn’t evenly distributed across food groups. Publicly traded consumer staples companies, which rely more on packaged goods—and the broader sector—could take a hit if GLP-1 usage continues to grow.
However, most people paying for this drug out-of-pocket tend to be wealthier and can afford to spend more on fresh foods. In theory, this could limit how many of the 100 million eligible Americans will be able to afford or sustain taking them, given the cost of the drugs and lifestyle shift required.
Kritzer: Most prescriptions are covered by insurance and not strictly paid out-of-pocket, but even if you’re covered, the cost is still significant. The cash pay option today runs about $400 per month. With a copay, the monthly outlay ranges from $25 to $250.
What about the impact on alcohol consumption?
Cullen: Taking a step back, spirits volumes held up through the dot-com crash of 2000 to 2002 and the financial crisis of 2008, with long-term growth a bright spot within consumer staples. That makes the recent downturn something of a puzzle.
We may be in the early innings of a broader shift, not driven solely by GLP-1s, but a confluence of factors. To date, GLP-1 behavioral studies haven’t shown major changes in alcohol use, so the magnitude of the sales drop doesn’t square with GLP-1 alcohol usage rates. Population demographic shifts also move too slowly to be the cause.
A recent Gallup survey showed alcohol consumption among U.S. adults has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year tracking of the trend.2 It also revealed the worst consumer sentiment toward alcohol consumption in decades. We think there may be a larger cultural shift against drinking, which could create long-term challenges for the industry.
While some studies project a potentially significant decline in alcohol consumption with GLP-1 use,3 early anecdotal data show GLP-1 users are more likely to cut sweets than salty foods or alcohol, further suggesting the decrease in alcohol consumption is due to more than just the new GLP-1 phenomenon.
Is Gen Z drinking less—and influencing the alcohol market?
Cullen: There is early data indicating younger consumers are drinking less than their cohorts of previous generations. Interestingly, if you look at the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 songs from 2000 to 2024, songs about partying, drinking, and alcohol peaked around 2010. Musical preferences tend to form in teenage years, so it’s possible today’s younger generation of legal drinkers simply don’t associate alcohol with the same appeal—or priority—as their older cohorts did.
Are GLP-1 side effects strong enough to cause a drop-off in long-term usage? What happens if someone stops taking the drug?
Kritzer: The most common side effects of GLP-1s are gastrointestinal (GI) issues—nausea, vomiting and bloating. The drugs are administered in small increments every four weeks to help limit GI issues. Side effects and affordability are the main reasons people stop using the drugs. Typically, people regain weight if they discontinue GLP-1 therapy, suggesting long-term use may be needed to maintain results.
Any other interesting studies you’ve seen?
Kritzer: Yes, after all we’ve just said, our knowledge about this space is still evolving. In a recent small study, 50 heavy drinkers were given Ozempic (which has a lower dose of semaglutide than Wegovy) for nine weeks. The results showed that while there was no impact on the number of drinking days, it did significantly lower both drinks per day and the desire for alcohol.4 Other studies suggest GLP-1s may broadly reduce cravings and addictive behaviors, such as gambling. So, it’s possible that these drugs can have a behavioral impact that extends well beyond weight management.
Bottom line: GLP-1 drugs are reshaping the landscape for obesity treatment and may be influencing consumer habits, especially around diet and alcohol. Their growing adoption may have far-reaching implications not only for individual health, but also for entire industries connected to food and beverages.
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